At JD Food, we believe that understanding the broader forces behind the beef market can help our customers make smarter decisions. One of the most important — and often overlooked — of these forces is the cattle cycle, a multi-year pattern that shapes everything from supply and pricing to product availability across the industry.
Where We Are in the Cattle Cycle
Currently, we’re deep in a herd liquidation phase, which means the national cattle inventory is shrinking. This happens when prolonged droughts, high feed costs, and financial pressure push producers to sell off more cattle — including breeding stock. Fewer calves today means fewer cattle to slaughter in the months and years ahead.
Constricted Supply = Stronger Prices
Major beef packers, often referred to as the “Big Four,” have intentionally slowed weekly harvest levels, reducing the amount of beef entering the market. As cattle prices are at record highs, their natural response is to effect supply in an effort to reduce demand. This strategy keeps prices firm, even as buyers push back.
It’s a move similar to how OPEC handles oil supply: by limiting production, they try to influence demand. For beef buyers, this has resulted in a stubbornly expensive market, where price relief is hard to find, especially on premium cuts.
Welcome to Grilling Season
This supply squeeze is coming just as we enter peak seasonal demand. Cuts like tri-tip, brisket, ribs, and ground beef all surge in popularity for grilling holidays like Father’s Day and July 4th.
Normally, higher demand would be matched by higher production. But this year packers are holding back, which means higher prices across the board for summer favorites.
Smart Moves to Protect Your Protein Program
Despite all this, you’re not without options.
At JD Food, we’ve developed several strategies to help our customers navigate high markets without sacrificing quality or margin:
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Frozen Inventory: We buy key cuts during off-peak periods and freeze them — locking in more favorable pricing for when you need it most.
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Canadian & Australian Sourcing: These markets offer beef graded to U.S. standards (or very close) and are often priced more competitively. AAA beef from Canada, for example, matches USDA Choice in marbling and tenderness — but without the same level of price volatility.
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Flexible Specs, Competitive Brands: If you’re willing to look beyond the big brand names, we can help you find beef that delivers the same eating experience — at a better value.
Let JD Food Help You Ride the Cycle
While we can’t control the cattle market, we can help you stay informed and stay flexible. Let’s work together to keep your menus profitable and your customers happy — no matter where we are in the cycle.